Economic and Financial Specialist
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Our client is seeking an Economic and Financial Specialist for an intermittent assignment in Turkmenistan to assist in preparing the demand forecasting, economic analysis, and financial analysis of the proposed Trans Turkmenistan Railway Modernization Project (Phase 1, Ashgabat-Dushak).
Looking at 20 Work Days from November 2024 to June 2025.
This job closes on Wednesday 16th October 2024.
Scope of Work
The Consultant will support the project team to update and finalize the economic and financial analysis of the TransTurkmenistan Railway Modernization Project (Phase 1, Ashgabat-Dushak), including assessing data gaps, updating demand forecasts, exploring additional benefits, and conducting an economic and financial assessment of potential interventions.
Detailed Tasks and/or Expected Output
Benefits
The Consultant will work under the guidance of the project team leader. The main deliverables include a updated demand analysis and forecast and updated economic and financial assessment with additional benefits quantified. The expert will carry out the following tasks, including, but not limited to:
(i) Demand analysis. Update the analysis of existing passenger and freight travel demand and its modal split distributions at a national level. Identify opportunities and challenges for future railway passenger and freight traffic demand, such as mode shift potential, increasing motorization rate, infrastructure capacity constraints, and future possible industry developments.
(iii) Demand forecast. Update a set of reference traffic forecasts based on different socio-economic and infrastructure scenarios (with and without projects), for a minimum of two forecast years, for passenger and freight traffic demand. Review market segmentation, including domestic freight, international export-import freight, commuter, and long-distance passenger traffic. The consultant may take into consideration the opportunities brought to the middle corridor.
(iv) Economic assessment. Reviewing macroeconomic and sector data. Finalize the economic evaluation of proposed interventions, following the client's Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects (2017). Give particular attention to (a) the definition of the with and without project scenarios; (b) rationale and design alternatives; (c) the timing of the completion of associated projects; and (d) project cross-cutting components, such as maintenance. Assess linkages of economic benefits with international trade. The benefit for the entire TMAT corridor may be assigned to Phase 1 proportionally. Additional traffic on the middle corridor may be considered. Benefits on safety and efficiency resulted from better maintenance could be considered. More passengers and freight resulted from improved service can be considered.
(v) Sensitivity analysis. Considering data collection challenges, conduct sensitivity analysis
assumptions used for economic parameters. Estimate the expected distribution of project net benefits among transport users, vehicle owners, labor, the Government, and the economy.
(vi) Financial assessment. Update and finalize the potential financial viability and sustainability or proposed interventions. Consider ways in which upgraded infrastructure can generate additional revenue and improve the sector sustainability. Assess necessary freight charges, passenger revenues, or subsidies required. Prepare PSO, passenger charges, and freight charges levels assessments.
The consultant should have a master's degree in economics, transportation engineering, transport economics or equivalent and relevant discipline. The consultant must have at least 8 years of experience in the railway sector, and at least 10 years of experience in undertaking economic and financial assessment of transport projects such as railways, roads, or public transport projects. Experience should preferably cover projects funded by multilateral and bilateral institutions, as well as in developing economies; CIS experience would be preferred.
Looking at 20 Work Days from November 2024 to June 2025.
This job closes on Wednesday 16th October 2024.
Scope of Work
The Consultant will support the project team to update and finalize the economic and financial analysis of the TransTurkmenistan Railway Modernization Project (Phase 1, Ashgabat-Dushak), including assessing data gaps, updating demand forecasts, exploring additional benefits, and conducting an economic and financial assessment of potential interventions.
Detailed Tasks and/or Expected Output
Benefits
The Consultant will work under the guidance of the project team leader. The main deliverables include a updated demand analysis and forecast and updated economic and financial assessment with additional benefits quantified. The expert will carry out the following tasks, including, but not limited to:
(i) Demand analysis. Update the analysis of existing passenger and freight travel demand and its modal split distributions at a national level. Identify opportunities and challenges for future railway passenger and freight traffic demand, such as mode shift potential, increasing motorization rate, infrastructure capacity constraints, and future possible industry developments.
(iii) Demand forecast. Update a set of reference traffic forecasts based on different socio-economic and infrastructure scenarios (with and without projects), for a minimum of two forecast years, for passenger and freight traffic demand. Review market segmentation, including domestic freight, international export-import freight, commuter, and long-distance passenger traffic. The consultant may take into consideration the opportunities brought to the middle corridor.
(iv) Economic assessment. Reviewing macroeconomic and sector data. Finalize the economic evaluation of proposed interventions, following the client's Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects (2017). Give particular attention to (a) the definition of the with and without project scenarios; (b) rationale and design alternatives; (c) the timing of the completion of associated projects; and (d) project cross-cutting components, such as maintenance. Assess linkages of economic benefits with international trade. The benefit for the entire TMAT corridor may be assigned to Phase 1 proportionally. Additional traffic on the middle corridor may be considered. Benefits on safety and efficiency resulted from better maintenance could be considered. More passengers and freight resulted from improved service can be considered.
(v) Sensitivity analysis. Considering data collection challenges, conduct sensitivity analysis
assumptions used for economic parameters. Estimate the expected distribution of project net benefits among transport users, vehicle owners, labor, the Government, and the economy.
(vi) Financial assessment. Update and finalize the potential financial viability and sustainability or proposed interventions. Consider ways in which upgraded infrastructure can generate additional revenue and improve the sector sustainability. Assess necessary freight charges, passenger revenues, or subsidies required. Prepare PSO, passenger charges, and freight charges levels assessments.
The consultant should have a master's degree in economics, transportation engineering, transport economics or equivalent and relevant discipline. The consultant must have at least 8 years of experience in the railway sector, and at least 10 years of experience in undertaking economic and financial assessment of transport projects such as railways, roads, or public transport projects. Experience should preferably cover projects funded by multilateral and bilateral institutions, as well as in developing economies; CIS experience would be preferred.
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